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US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

2013-09-02 06:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar at Risk of Reversal Below Channel Resistance
  • S&P 500 Flirting with Key Trend Line Support Levels
  • Gold Broke Lower as Expected, Support Seen Sub-1400

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Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Spinning Top candle below resistance at 10796, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the top of a falling channel set from early Jul. The setup warns a move lower may be ahead. A break below initial support at 10760 exposes downside objectives at 10693 and 10646. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance targets the 38.2% Fib at 10882.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_SPX_500_Testing_with_10-Month_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing a support region bracketed by a pair of trend lines set from the November 2012 swing bottom. Near-term resistance at this stage is at 1646.20, the intersection of the first layer of trend line support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that exposes the 38.2% level at 1658.30. Secondary trend line support is now at 1630.40, with a move below that eyeing the August 28 low at 1626.60.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_SPX_500_Testing_with_10-Month_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned lower as expected, taking out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early August to expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1373.79. A break below that aims for the 38.2% level at 1336.79. The channel bottom – now at 1411.45 – has been recast as near-term resistance.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_SPX_500_Testing_with_10-Month_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pulled back as expected after showing a Shooting Star candlestick. Sellers are testing resistance-turned-support at the top of a Triangle chart pattern (107.29) to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 105.93. A break below that targets the Triangle bottom at 103.99. Resistance is seen at the 110.00 figure, followed by the August 28 high at 112.21.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_SPX_500_Testing_with_10-Month_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar at Risk, SPX 500 Testing with 10-Month Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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