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US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar price action remains muted as prices linger at a familiar range top. SPX 500 positioning hints renewed selling pressure may be close at hand.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at 10760, the recent range top marked by the August 13 high, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Range support is at 10569, with a break below that targeting the bottom of a falling channel set from early July (now at 10575). A reversal above 10760 aims for the channel top at 10792.

Forex_US_Dollar_Inching_Downward_SPX_500_Snaps_9-Month_Trend_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers have cleared support at a rising trend line defining the rising trend from November 2012, hinting a major reversal may be at hand. The next level of support from here is at 1616.60, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% level at 1643.30 opens the door for a retest of the trend line support-turned-resistance, now at 1641.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_Inching_Downward_SPX_500_Snaps_9-Month_Trend_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continued higher as expected after taking out resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (1400.72). The bulls now aim to challenge 1440.23, a barrier marked by the intersection of a rising channel top and the 100% level. The 1400.72 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the channel bottom at 1389.14.

Forex_US_Dollar_Inching_Downward_SPX_500_Snaps_9-Month_Trend_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The appearance of a Triangle chart pattern preceded upward continuation as expected. Prices are testing above resistance at 111.10, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a confirmed break higher on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 113.85. Near-term support is at 107.70, the 23.6% level.

Forex_US_Dollar_Inching_Downward_SPX_500_Snaps_9-Month_Trend_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Inching Downward, SPX 500 Snaps 9-Month Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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