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Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has stalled at Augusts’ range top once again while the SPX 500 continues to recover having spiked to a two-month low last week.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at 10760, the August 13 high, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Range support is at 10646, with a break below that targeting the bottom of a falling channel set from early July (now at 10581). A reversal above 10760 aims for the channel top at 10804.

Forex_Dollar_Stalls_at_Familiar_Range_Top_SPX_500_Recovery_Continues_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are edging higher as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Initial resistance remains at 1669.80, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that targets the 1687.40-91.80 area, marked by the 38.2% level and the May 22 high. Near-term support is at 1634.30, the August 22 low.

Forex_Dollar_Stalls_at_Familiar_Range_Top_SPX_500_Recovery_Continues_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices overturned bearish reversal cues noted last week, pushing higher to challenge resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (1400.72). A break this barrier targets a rising channel top at 1423.17, followed by the 100% level at 1440.23. Near-term support is at 1376.28, the intersection of the channel bottom and the 61.8% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Stalls_at_Familiar_Range_Top_SPX_500_Recovery_Continues_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices showed little downward follow-through after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Positioning appears to be tracing out a consolidation Triangle setup once again, a formation typically indicative of consolidation preceding resumption of the overall trend (which favors the upside in this case). Resistance at the Triangle top is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 108.40, with a break above that targeting the 50% level at 110.32. Triangle support is now at 103.68. A reversal beneath that eyes a rising trend line at 100.44.

Forex_Dollar_Stalls_at_Familiar_Range_Top_SPX_500_Recovery_Continues_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Stalls at Familiar Range Top, SPX 500 Recovery Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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