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US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

2013-08-09 03:52:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar dropped for a fifth consecutive day, hitting the lowest levels in close to 2 months, while the S&P 500 is stalling near the May swing top.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued to push lower after taking out support at a rising trend line set from mid-June, with sellers now challenging the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 10656. A break below this barrier exposes the 100% level at 10581. Near-term resistance is at 10702, the 61.8% Fib, followed by the 50% expansion at 10739.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Continues_SP_500_Stalls_Near_May_Top_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick. Near-term support is at 1687.40, the May 22 high, a barrier reinforced by the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-July (1692.30). A break below that targets the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1674.10. Channel resistance is now at 1715.80.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Continues_SP_500_Stalls_Near_May_Top_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from late June. Prices have now recovered above support-turned-resistance at 1307.34, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the July 24 high at 1347.57 and the channel bottom at 1358.85. Alternatively, a move back below 1307.34 aims for the 38.2% Fib at 1283.03.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Continues_SP_500_Stalls_Near_May_Top_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices appear to be carving out a double top below the July 19 swing high at 108.89. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 105.06 has exposed the 38.2% level at 102.70, with a further push beneath that eyeing the 50% Fib at 100.79. Alternatively, a move back above 105.06 targets 108.89 anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Continues_SP_500_Stalls_Near_May_Top_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Selloff Continues, S&P 500 Stalls Near May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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