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US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

2013-07-30 02:53:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar recovered to retest recently broken chart support but overall technical positioning continues to broadly favor weakness.

Don’t have access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are retesting broken support-turned-resistance at 10739, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge a falling trend line set from the July 8 swing high (now at 10762). A break above the latter barrier exposes the 38.2% level at 10803. Near-term support remains at 10675, the 61.8% Fib.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Favors_Weakness__body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are drifting sideways having pulled back from the 1700 figure to retest resistance-turned-support at 1687.40, the May 22 swing high.A reversal back below this barrier exposes the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1675.10. Alternatively, a push above 1700 aims for the 100% level at 1710.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Favors_Weakness__body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from late June, hinting a move lower is ahead. Channel bottom support is now at 1312.15, with a break beneath that initially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1273.98. Channel resistance is now at 1379.51.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Favors_Weakness__body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned lower as expected. Sellers have now overcome support at 105.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 102.70. A further push beneath that aims for the 50% Fib at 100.79. The 105.06 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that eyeing the July 19 high at 108.89.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Favors_Weakness__body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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