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US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

2013-07-17 03:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar faltered as expected after signs of indecision emerged at technical resistance. S&P 500 positioning hints the May top may hold.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Doji candlestick below resistance at 10882, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Sellers are now testing support in the 10790-803 area, marked by the 38.2% level and the June 24 swing high, with a break below that eyeing the 50% Fib at 10739.

Forex_US_Dollar_Falters_SP_500_Reversal_Hinted_at_May_High_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1687.40, the May 22 swing high, hinting a move lower is ahead. Confirmation of reversal requires a daily close below rising trend line support set from late June, now at 1671.30. In this scenario, the next level of support lines up at 1655.40, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a break above 1687.40 exposes the 100% Fib expansion at 1710.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Falters_SP_500_Reversal_Hinted_at_May_High_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing resistance at 1297.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher targeting a channel top at 1321.91 and the 50% level at 1334.08. Near-term support is at 1252.80, the intersection of the 23.6% Fib and the channel bottom. A reversal beneath that eyes swing lows at 1208.10 and 1180.15.

Forex_US_Dollar_Falters_SP_500_Reversal_Hinted_at_May_High_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 103.93, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break beneath that targeting a rising trend line at 102.18 and the 50% level at 100.05. The bearish candle setup would be invalidated on a close above 107.41, the July 11 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Falters_SP_500_Reversal_Hinted_at_May_High_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Falters, S&P 500 Reversal Hinted at May High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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