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US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

2013-07-04 01:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar recoiled lower having set a new three-year high. The S&P 500 continues to look vulnerable to a reversal lower after a corrective rebound.

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – A break above resistance at 10859, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, has opened the door for a move to challenge the 100% level at 10980. The 10859 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 10785.

Forex_US_Dollar_Backs_Away_from_3-Year_High_SP_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices corrected higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A Hanging Man candle below trend line support-turned-resistance set from late February (1620.60) now warns renewed selling may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1595.80, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1577.10. Alternatively, a move above resistance aims for a recently broken upward-sloping barrier established from mid-November 2012 (1636.90).

Forex_US_Dollar_Backs_Away_from_3-Year_High_SP_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1237.63) has exposed the 38.2% level at 1273.19. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1301.93. The 1237.63 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a drop back beneath that targeting the June 28 low at 1180.15.

Forex_US_Dollar_Backs_Away_from_3-Year_High_SP_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS An expected rebound from rising trend line support has accelerated, with prices testing above resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (101.07) to target the 76.4% level (103.06). Near-term support is at the psychologically significant $100/barrel figure, followed by the 50% Fib (99.47).

Forex_US_Dollar_Backs_Away_from_3-Year_High_SP_500_at_Risk_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Backs Away from 3-Year High, S&P 500 at Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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