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US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

2013-06-18 05:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has stalled to digest recent losses after breaking its 2013 rising trend as traders await the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers have now overcome the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 10510, exposing the 50% level at 10397. Near-term resistance is at 10576, marked by the March 11 high and a broken rising trend line set from December 2012. A move back above that eyes the 23.6% Fib at 10650.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Pauses_After_Prices_Clear_Critical_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged through resistance at the top of a falling channel set from late May, exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1645.50. A push above that targets the 38.2% level at 1675.30. Channel resistance-turned-support is at 1632.70, with a move below that eyeing a rising trend line set from mid-November 2012 at 1614.50.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Pauses_After_Prices_Clear_Critical_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are hovering above rising trend line support set from mid-April – now at 1370.14 – with a break lower aiming for recent swing lows in the 1321.59-38.06 area. Rising channel support-turned-resistance is at 1416.47. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1424.23, with a break above the latter level targeting the 50% Fib at 1455.94.

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Pauses_After_Prices_Clear_Critical_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. The formation of a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance points to indecision and warns a pullback may be in the cards. A move back below the trend line (now at 96.58) aims for the 38.2% expansion at 95.71

Forex_US_Dollar_Selloff_Pauses_After_Prices_Clear_Critical_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Selloff Pauses After Prices Clear Critical Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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