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US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

2013-06-17 05:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has broken down out of the confines of the rising trend guiding prices since the start of the year, warning of deeper losses on the horizon.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers have now overcome the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 10510, exposing the 50% level at 10397. Near-term resistance is at 10576, marked by the March 11 high and a broken rising trend line set from December 2012. A move back above that eyes the 23.6% Fib at 10650.

US_Dollar_Break_of_2013_Rising_Trends_Warns_of_Deeper_Losses_Ahead_body_Picture_4.png, US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to hover above support at a trend-defining rising trend line set from November 2012 (1613.20), a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1605.90. A break beneath that initially exposes a calling channel bottom at 1583.90. Channel resistance is at 1635.90.

US_Dollar_Break_of_2013_Rising_Trends_Warns_of_Deeper_Losses_Ahead_body_Picture_3.png, US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are hovering above rising trend line support set from mid-April – now at 1369.12 – with a break lower aiming for recent swing lows in the 1321.59-38.06 area. Rising channel support-turned-resistance is at 1414.43. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1424.23, with a break above the latter level targeting the 50% Fib at 1455.94.

US_Dollar_Break_of_2013_Rising_Trends_Warns_of_Deeper_Losses_Ahead_body_Picture_2.png, US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. Alternatively, a move back below the trend line (now at 96.61) aims for the 38.2% expansion at 95.71

US_Dollar_Break_of_2013_Rising_Trends_Warns_of_Deeper_Losses_Ahead_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Break of 2013 Rising Trend Warns of Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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