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US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

2013-06-05 04:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar mounted a shallow corrective recovery but overall technical positioning continues to favor the downside scenario.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected, taking out the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 10711 and exposing the 23.6% Fib at 10609. A further push beneath that eyes the 38.2% level at 10443. The 10711 mark has been recast as near-term resistance, with a break back above that eyeing the underside of a recently broken rising channel at 10817.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 1625.60, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that exposes the 1600 figure and the 23.6% level at 1587.50. Near-term trend line resistance is at 1655.20, with a move above that eyeing the May 22 high at 1687.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1386.51, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets the 38.2% level at 1364.62. Initial resistance is at 1421.90, the May 31 swing high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A bounce from falling channel support targets the formation’s top at 94.68, with a break above that aiming for a falling trend line set from September 2012, now at 96.75. Channel support is at 90.81.

Forex_US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Favors_Weakness_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Bounces But Overall Chart Setup Favors Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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