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US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

2013-05-31 04:40:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar looks likely to weaken further after prices broke below the first layer of key technical support. The S&P 500 continues to look for traction.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected, with prices taking out support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (10764) after completing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 10694, with a move beneath that exposing the 50% Fib at 10638. Alternatively, a move back above 10764 eyes the rising channel support-turned-resistance at 10799.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_as_Prices_Break_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are treading water above support at 1637.00, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that initially targets the 23.6% Fib at 1605.90. Near-term resistance is at the May 22 high (1687.40), a barrier reinforced by the underside of a broken rising trend line set from mid-April (now at 1683.80).

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_as_Prices_Break_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved higher as expected after completing a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, taking out the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1401.63. Buyers now stand to challenge the 50% mark at 1421.26, with a push above that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 1440.90. The 1401.63 mark has been recast as near-term support.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_as_Prices_Break_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices appear to be forming a Head and Shoulders top chart formation. Confirmation requires a close below the pattern’s neckline (now at 92.78), initially exposing the May 1 low at 90.09 and a measured downside objective at 88.58. Near-term resistance is at 95.89, the May 28 high, with a push beyond that eyeing a falling trend line at 96.82.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_of_Deeper_Losses_as_Prices_Break_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar at Risk of Deeper Losses as Prices Break Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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