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US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

2013-05-29 05:18:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar launched a convincing recovery having found technical support but overall positioning still carries remnants of reversal risk.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices recovered from rising trend line support to challenge resistance at 10879, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that exposes the 38.2% level at 10948. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of ebbing upward momentum however. Trend line support is now at 10793, with a turn below that initially targeting the 23.6% Fib retracement at 10763.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovers_But_Continued_Gains_May_Be_Limited_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating above support in the 1649.60-51.60 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% expansion. A break below this barrier initially exposes the 38.2% retracement at 1629.40. Near-term resistance is at 1676.50, the 123.6% expansion, with a reversal above that eyeing the 138.2% mark at 1693.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovers_But_Continued_Gains_May_Be_Limited_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1348.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1402.11, the 23.6% level, with a break above that targeting the 14.6% Fib at 1434.86 and the May 3 high at 1488.00. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 50% expansion at 1306.02.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovers_But_Continued_Gains_May_Be_Limited_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices bounce from support at 93.34, the May 10 low. Near-term resistance is at 96.85 a falling trend line set from mid-September 2012. A bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern and negative RSI divergence argue in favor of a downside scenario however. A move below 93.34 initially exposes the May 15 bottom at 93.11.

Forex_US_Dollar_Recovers_But_Continued_Gains_May_Be_Limited_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Recovers But Continued Gains May Be Limited

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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