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US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

2013-05-28 00:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has managed to hold up at near-term chart support but technical positioning continues to warn of a downward correction ahead.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial trend line support is at 10788 and is reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10763. A break below that targets the 38.2% level at 10694. Near-term resistance is at 10876, the May 23 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_But_Downside_Risks_Remain_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support in the 1649.60-51.60 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% expansion. A break below this barrier initially exposes the 38.2% retracement at 1629.40. Near-term resistance is at 1676.50, the 123.6% expansion, with a reversal above that eyeing the 138.2% mark at 1693.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_But_Downside_Risks_Remain_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1348.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1402.11, the 23.6% level, with a break above that targeting the 14.6% Fib at 1434.86 and the May 3 high at 1488.00. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 50% expansion at 1306.02.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_But_Downside_Risks_Remain_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Sellers are now testing support at 93.55, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% level at 92.23. Near-term resistance is at 94.61, the 50% Fib. A reversal above that eyes the 61.8% expansion at 95.68.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_But_Downside_Risks_Remain_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Clings to Support But Downside Risks Remain

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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