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Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

2013-05-23 04:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&P 500 may struggle to find meaningful upward follow-through having set year-to-date highs over the past 24 hours.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices invalidated a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern to break above resistance at 10822, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now target the 61.8% level at 10922, with a break above that exposing the 76.4% Fib at 11045. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints the move higher may be short-lived. The 10822 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that initially eyeing the 38.2% expansion at 10722.

Forex_Dollar_SP_500_May_Struggle_to_Find_Upward_Follow-Through_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are hovering below resistance at 1676.50, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with early signs of negative RSI divergence warning a pullback may be ahead. Initial support is at 1649.60, the 100% level. A drop beneath that aims for the 76.4% expansion at 1622.70. Alternatively, a break above resistance targets the 138.2% Fib at 1693.10.

Forex_Dollar_SP_500_May_Struggle_to_Find_Upward_Follow-Through_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1348.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1402.11, the 23.6% level, with a break above that targeting the 14.6% Fib at 1434.86 and the May 3 high at 1488.00. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 50% expansion at 1306.02.

Forex_Dollar_SP_500_May_Struggle_to_Find_Upward_Follow-Through_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 92.73, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that eyeing the 50% level at 91.31. Critical resistance is at 96.93, marked by a falling trend line set from late January.

Forex_Dollar_SP_500_May_Struggle_to_Find_Upward_Follow-Through_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar, S&P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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