THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns a turn lower may be ahead, with testimony from Ben Bernanke and May’s FOMC minutes lining up as possible triggers.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 10822, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support is at 10722, the 38.2% level, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 10599. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance exposes the 61.8% expansion at 10922.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_Before_Bernanke_Testimony_FOMC_Minutes_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar at Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1676.50, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that targeting the 138.2% level at 1693.10. Near-term support is at 1649.60, the 100% Fib. A drop beneath that aims for the 76.4% expansion at 1622.70.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_Before_Bernanke_Testimony_FOMC_Minutes_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar at Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke above resistance in the 1375.16-77.33 area and completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting at further gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1401.63, with a break above that targeting 1421.26. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 1375.16 exposes 1340.31.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_Before_Bernanke_Testimony_FOMC_Minutes_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar at Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at the 97.00 figure, a level marked by a falling trend line set from early January and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 95.68, the 61.8% level, with a break below that targeting the 50% Fib at 94.62. Alternatively, a move above 97.00 aims for the 100% level at 99.14.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Risk_Before_Bernanke_Testimony_FOMC_Minutes_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar at Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

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