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Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

2013-04-12 04:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is locked in a choppy consolidation range despite sharp downward breakouts in gold and crude oil prices as well as the S&P 500.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing resistance at 10494, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the April 8 swing high at 10538. Near-term support is at 10467, the 38.2% level. A reversal below that initially targets the 50% Fib at 10446.

Forex_Dollar_Locked_in_Choppy_Range_as_Gold_Oil_and_SP_500_Sink_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed sharply lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below the 1600 figure. Initial support lines up at 1537.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at the 1500.00 mark. Significant resistance is at 1597.60, the April 11 high.

Forex_Dollar_Locked_in_Choppy_Range_as_Gold_Oil_and_SP_500_Sink_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices took out support at 1397.50, the 100% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now target the 123.6% mark at 1303.50, with a break below that aiming for the 138.2% Fib at 1245.35. The 1397.50 mark has been recast as near-term resistance. A reversal back above that eyes the 76.4% expansion at 1491.50.

Forex_Dollar_Locked_in_Choppy_Range_as_Gold_Oil_and_SP_500_Sink_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the underside of a previously broken rising trend line set from the March 4 low. Sellers are now testing below support is at 86.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 138.2% level at 85.38. Near-term resistance is at 88.77, the 100% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Locked_in_Choppy_Range_as_Gold_Oil_and_SP_500_Sink_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Locked in Choppy Range as Gold, Oil and S&P 500 Sink

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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