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US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

2013-04-03 03:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has managed to cling to technical support for now. S&P 500 positioning continues to warn of a downward reversal looming ahead.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices bounced from support at 10420, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, to test falling trend line resistance at 10461. A break above that aims for the 23.6% expansion at 10518. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 38.2% retracement at 10324.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear to be carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern below support in the 1575.10-76.10 area, marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion and the index’s record high. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A break below the wedge bottom at 1563.70 targets a channel bottom at 1550.40. Alternatively, a break above 1576.10 exposes the 61.8% expansion at 1584.50.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke support at 1562.58, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 50% level at 1545.78. Near-term resistance is at 1583.37, the 23.6% Fib. A reversal back above that eyes the 14.6% expansion at 1596.19, a barrier reinforced by the underside of a formerly broken rising trend line set from late February.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% level, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 95.98. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.

Forex_US_Dollar_Clings_to_Support_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Downturn_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Clings to Support, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Downturn

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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