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US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is flirting with a bearish breakout while S&P 500 technical positioning warns a significant top may be in place below the index’s record high.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing below support at 10420, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that exposes the 38.2% level at 10324. Near-term falling trend line resistance is at 10468, with a reversal back above that eying the 23.6% Fib expansion at 10518.

Forex_US_Dollar_Threatens_Support_Break_SP_500_Hints_at_Reversal_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 1576.10, the index’s record high, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1537.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% level at 1516.70.

Forex_US_Dollar_Threatens_Support_Break_SP_500_Hints_at_Reversal_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing support at a rising trend line set from late February (1596.62), with a break lower initially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1636.16.

Forex_US_Dollar_Threatens_Support_Break_SP_500_Hints_at_Reversal_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% level, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.03. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.

Forex_US_Dollar_Threatens_Support_Break_SP_500_Hints_at_Reversal_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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