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US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has stalled at near-term technical resistance. The S&P 500 continues to push higher but positioning warns that bullish momentum is ebbing.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing falling trend line resistance at 10475, with a break higher exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10518. Near-term support is at 10420, the 23.6% retracement level. A drop beneath that aims for the 38.2% mark at 10324.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Resistance_SP_500_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposingthe 1575.00-76.10 area marked by the 50% Fib and the index’s record high. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of a forthcoming reversal however. The 1565.60 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back below that eyeing the March 18 low at 1534.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Resistance_SP_500_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing at a rising trend line set from late February (1594.77), with a break lower targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.22. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1637.82.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Resistance_SP_500_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to push higher after taking out resistance at 96.41, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers are targeting the 61.8% Fib at 98.09, with a break above that exposing the 76.4% level at 100.15. The 96.41 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back beneath that exposing the 38.2% Fib at 94.74.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Resistance_SP_500_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Finds Resistance, S&P 500 Vulnerable to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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