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Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

2013-03-28 05:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is testing near-term trend resistance while S&P 500 technical positioning warns the index may be on the cusp of a reversal downward.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing falling trend line resistance at 10474, with a break higher exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10518. Near-term support is at 10420, the 23.6% retracement level. A drop beneath that aims for the 38.2% mark at 10324.

Forex_Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1534.90, the March 18 low. Alternatively, a break higher eyes the 1575.00-76.10 area, marked by the 50% Fib and the index’s record high.

Forex_Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing support at 1597.77, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, a barrier reinforced by a rising trend line set from late February (1596.09). A break below that exposes the 23.6% level at 1586.27. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high, with a reversal above that aiming for a longer-term falling trend line at 1638.85.

Forex_Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke resistance at 96.41, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late January. Buyers now target the 61.8% Fib at 98.09. The 96.41 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back beneath that exposing the 38.2% Fib at 94.74.

Forex_Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Weakness

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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