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US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

2013-03-27 05:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has failed to generate significant downward momentum after completing a bearish chart formation hinting at a near-term top in place.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are retesting the previously broken neckline of a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern (10460), with a break above that on a daily closing basis negating the setup and targeting the March 20 highat 10514. Initial support is at 10423, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break beneath that exposes the 38.2% Fib at 10329. The implied H&S downside objective is at 10312.

Forex_US_Dollar_Struggles_to_Build_Momentum_Behind_Bearish_Setup_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher targeting the 1575.00-76.10 area marked by the 50% level and the index’s record high. Near-term support is at 1534.90, the March 18 low. Negative RSI divergence argues in favor of a downside scenario, although confirmation of reversal is absent at this point.

Forex_US_Dollar_Struggles_to_Build_Momentum_Behind_Bearish_Setup_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing support at 1597.77, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, a barrier reinforced by a rising trend line set from late February (1594.53). A break below that exposes the 23.6% level at 1586.27. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high, with a reversal above that aiming for a longer-term falling trend line at 1639.94.

Forex_US_Dollar_Struggles_to_Build_Momentum_Behind_Bearish_Setup_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing resistance at 96.41, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a falling trend line set from late January. A break above that exposes the 61.8% Fib at 98.09. Near-term support is at 94.74, the 38.2% level.

Forex_US_Dollar_Struggles_to_Build_Momentum_Behind_Bearish_Setup_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Struggles to Build Momentum Behind Bearish Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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