US Dollar at Interim Support, S&P 500 Attempts to Probe Lower

2013-03-19 02:17:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has found interim support after last week’s selling while the S&P 500 is attempting to cautiously probe downward.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices turned lower as expected taking out the bottom of a rising channel set from late January. Prices have found initial support at 10454, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a bounce from here aiming to retest the channel bottom (now at 10540). A push back above that targets the March 11 high at 10576. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 23.6% Fib at 10379.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Interim_Support_SP_500_Attempts_to_Probe_Lower_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar at Interim Support, S&P 500 Attempts to Probe Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices probed lower after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern. Initial support is at 1531.50, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 23.6% level at 1511.60. Near-term resistance is at 1563.90, the March 15 high. A reversal above that targets the index’s record high at 1576.10. Negative RSI diverge argues in favor of a downside scenario.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Interim_Support_SP_500_Attempts_to_Probe_Lower_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar at Interim Support, S&P 500 Attempts to Probe Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices narrowly edged above resistance at 1604.87, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50% level at 1620.28. A further push above that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1635.68. The 1604.87 mark has been recast support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 23.6% retracement at 1585.81.

Forex_US_Dollar_at_Interim_Support_SP_500_Attempts_to_Probe_Lower_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar at Interim Support, S&P 500 Attempts to Probe Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices narrowly took out resistance at 93.69, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 61.8% barrier at 94.73 as the next upside objective. The 93.69 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that aims for the 38.2% Fib at 92.66.