US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

2013-03-15 04:28:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar fell below near-term trend support, suggesting a correction lower has begun, while the S&P 500 continues to march toward its record high.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices turned lower as expected, taking out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from late January. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10471, with a break beneath that exposing the 38.2% level at 10406. The channel bottom (now at 10518) has been recast as resistance. A move back above that targets the March 8 high at 10575.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Trend_Support_SP_500_Eyes_Record_High_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke resistance at 1556.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 50% level at 1578.50. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints a turn lower may be ahead. The 1556.00 level has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 1528.40-31.60 area marked by the February 20 high and the 23.6% Fib.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Trend_Support_SP_500_Eyes_Record_High_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1585.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1604.84. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1620.28. The 1585.81 has been recast support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 14.6% retracement at 1574.06.

Forex_US_Dollar_Breaks_Trend_Support_SP_500_Eyes_Record_High_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke resistance at 92.72, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50% level at 93.77. A further push beyond that boundary eyes the 61.8% Fib at 94.82. The 92.72 level has been recast s near-term support. A reversal back below that targets the 23.6% retracement at 91.43.