THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is testing key support defining its uptrend since late January while the S&P 500 is stalling just below the index’s all-time high.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing support marked by the bottom of a rising channel and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansionat 10505. A break downward exposes the 61.8% level at 10359. Channel top resistance is at 10619, with a push above that eyeing the 100% expansion at 10741.Negative RSI divergence continues to argue for a downside scenario.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1556.67, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher exposing the 50% level at 1578.80. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum and hints a turn lower may be ahead. Near-term support is in the 1529.28-31.60 area, marked by the February 20 high and the 23.6% Fib.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1585.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1604.84. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1620.28. The 1585.81 has been recast support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 14.6% retracement at 1574.06.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick pattern below resistance at 92.72, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Initial support is at 91.43, the 23.6% level, with a break beneath that aiming for the March 3 low at 89.33. Alternatively, a break above resistance targets the 50% Fib at 93.77.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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