US Dollar Retreats from Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Pullback

2013-03-13 07:07:00 Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has turned lower from resistance and may be on the verge of a larger decline. The S&P 500 is showing early signs of a correction.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices pulling back from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from early February eyeing support marked by the formation’s bottom and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansionat 10505. A break below this boundary broadly exposes the 61.8% level at 10359. The channel top is now at 10608, with a push above that eyeing the 100% expansion at 10741.Negative RSI divergence continues to argue for a downside scenario.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retreats_from_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Pullback_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Retreats from Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1554.60, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 61.8% level at 1571.30. Negative RSI divergence and a Hanging Man candlestick have emerged as warning signs however, hinting a correction lower may be ahead. A break back below 1554.60 initially aims for the 38.2% Fib at 1537.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retreats_from_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Pullback_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Retreats from Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1585.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1604.84. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1620.28. The 1585.81 has been recast support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 14.6% retracement at 1574.06.

Forex_US_Dollar_Retreats_from_Resistance_SP_500_at_Risk_of_Pullback_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Retreats from Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Pullback

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices continue to recover after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Buyers are now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 92.73, with a break above that targeting the 50% level at 93.78. Near-term support is at 91.43, the 23.6% Fib. A turn beneath that eyes the March 4 low at 89.34.