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Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

2013-03-07 05:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints a reversal lower may be ahead. The S&P 500 also appears vulnerable having hit the highest level in over five years.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing resistance at 10504, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. A break higher targets a rising channel top at 10546. Channel support is at 10439, with a reversal below that aiming for the 61.8% Fib at 10359.

Forex_Dollar_Threatens_Resistance_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_3.png, Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion (1538.70), a barrier reinforced by a formerly broken rising trend line (1546.20). Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum and hints a turn lower may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1517.50, the 23.6% level. Alternatively, a break above 1546.20 aims for the 50% Fib at 1555.60.

Forex_Dollar_Threatens_Resistance_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_4.png, Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices mounted a shallow recovery from support at 1570.37, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1589.36, the 23.6% level, with a break above that aiming for the February 26 high at 1620.09. Alternatively, a break downward initially aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1554.62.

Forex_Dollar_Threatens_Resistance_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 91.13, the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this barrier targets the 38.2 % level at 92.80. Near-term support is at 89.45, the 61.8% Fib, with a drop below that aiming for the 76.4% retracement at 87.38.

Forex_Dollar_Threatens_Resistance_SP_500_Still_at_Risk_of_Reversal_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Threatens Resistance, S&P 500 Still at Risk of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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