THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has hit resistance at the outer boundary of its recent rising trend. S&P 500 positioning continues to favor a bearish outlook.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing resistance marked by the intersection of a rising channel top and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (10505). A break higher broadly exposes the 100% level at 10741. Channel support is now at 10405, with a move below that initially exposing the 61.8% Fib at 10359.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after bouncing from support at 1486.90, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A still-valid Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern marking the February 20 top continues to argue to argue for a broadly bearish outlook however, painting recent gains as corrective. Swing high resistance is at 1531.60, followed by a formerly broken rising trend line at 1537.30. Alternatively, a drop below 1486.90 exposes the 38.2% Fib at 1459.20.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 1570.37, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 1589.36, the 23.6% level, with a break above that aiming for the February 26 high at 1620.09. Alternatively, a break downward initially aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1554.62.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke support at 91.13, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 61.8% level at 89.45. A further push beneath that aims for the 76.4% Fib at 87.38. The 91.13 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that targeting the 38.2 % Fib at 92.80.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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