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US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

2013-02-28 05:53:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to edge lower resistance while yesterday’s jump in the S&P 500 looks to be corrective within the context of a broader move lower.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pulled back from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from early February to test 14.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 10367. This barrier is reinforced by the channel bottom (10377). Negative RSI divergence warns of weakness ahead, with a break downward initially exposing the 23.6% level at 10320. Channel top resistance is now at 10483.

Forex_Dollar_Edging_Lower_SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from support at 1486.90, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, to recapture the 1500 figure. Near-term rising trend line support-turned-resistance is at 1533.10. A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the February 20 top remains valid however, marking the current advance as corrective in the context of a broader bearish bias absent a close above the pattern’s high (1531.60).

Forex_Dollar_Edging_Lower_SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices recoiled from resistance at 1611.83, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, cutting short a four-day recovery. Near-term support is at 1590.16, the 14.6% level, with a break below that aiming for the February 21 low at 1555.00. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 38.2% retracement at 1646.99.

Forex_Dollar_Edging_Lower_SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at 92.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break back above this barrier exposes the 23.6% level at 94.87. Near-term support is at 91.13, the 50.0% Fib, with a drop beneath that targeting the 61.8% retracement at 89.45.

Forex_Dollar_Edging_Lower_SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Edging Lower, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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