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US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar soared to a two–year high but early signs of ebbing upward momentum may be hinting at a reversal lower in the works.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke above resistance in the 10323-26 area, marked by the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion and the 2012 yearly high, exposing the 138.2% level at 10375. A further push above that aims for the 150% level at 10413. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum however, hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. A turn back below 10323 and a minor rising trend line at 10302 targets the 100% Fib 10248.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Wobble_as_Prices_Hit_a_Two-Year_High_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1523.00, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, warning of indecision and hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. The first layer of major support is at 1497.50, the 100% Fib. A break below that aims for the 1471.90-74.90 area. Alternatively, a push through resistance aims for the 138.2% mark at 1538.70.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Wobble_as_Prices_Hit_a_Two-Year_High_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1617.84, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1599.10. A further push below that targets a falling channel bottom at 1588.66. The 1617.84 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1632.97.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Wobble_as_Prices_Hit_a_Two-Year_High_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are consolidating above support at 95.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Resistance remains in the 98.02-21 area (marked by the 23.6% Fib expansion and the January 30 high). A break higher exposes the 38.2% expansion at 99.91. Alternatively, a reversal below 95.14 initially targets the 38.2% retracement at 93.24.

Forex_US_Dollar_May_Wobble_as_Prices_Hit_a_Two-Year_High_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Wobble as Prices Hit a Two-Year High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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