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Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar chart positioning warns prices may turn lower after testing the 2012 yearly high. The S&P 500 looks increasingly vulnerable to a downside reversal.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance in the 10323-26 area, marked by the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion and the 2012 yearly high. The setup hints a move lower is ahead, with negative RSI divergence reinforcing the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 10248, the 100% Fib, with a break below that exposing rising channel resistance-turned-support at 10221.

Forex_Dollar_at_Risk_Below_2012_High_SP_500_Looking_Top-Heavy_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1513.20, the 114.6% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers are now testing the 123.6% level at 1523.00, with a break above that targeting the 138.2% mark at 1538.70 (now shown). However, a Spinning Top candle warms of indecision and negative RSI divergence hints a turn lower may be ahead. The 1513.20 level has been recast as near-term support. A move back below that initially aims for the 100% Fib at 1497.50.

Forex_Dollar_at_Risk_Below_2012_High_SP_500_Looking_Top-Heavy_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke critical rising trend line support set from mid-May 2012 and took out the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion (1648.20). Sellers now aim to challenge the 50% mark at 1633.06, with a push beneath that aiming for the 61.8% Fib at 1617.93. The 1648.20 level has been recast as near-term resistance. A reversal back above that eyes the trend line (now at 1661.30) anew.

Forex_Dollar_at_Risk_Below_2012_High_SP_500_Looking_Top-Heavy_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices rebounded from support at 95.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge resistance is in the 98.02-21 area (marked by the 23.6% Fib expansion and the January 30 high). A break above that exposes the 38.2% expansion at 99.91. Alternatively, a reversal below 95.14 initially targets the 38.2% retracement at 93.24.

Forex_Dollar_at_Risk_Below_2012_High_SP_500_Looking_Top-Heavy_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar at Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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