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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar turned lower as expected after hitting a five-month high against its top counterparts last week. The S&P 500 is treading water at resistance.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pulled back as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10122, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion. Near term support is at 10082, the 50% level. A drop below that exposes the 32.8%expansion at 10044. Alternatively, a break above resistance aims for the 76.4% Fib at 10170.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Turns_Lower_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher in the aftermath of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, taking out a falling trend line set from mid-September and exposing resistance at 1466.10. A break above that targets the 1471.60-1474.90 area marked by the October 5 and September 14 swing highs. Initial support is at 1450.10, the December 19 top, with a break below that eyeing the trend line at 1440.00 and a horizontal pivot at 1432.90.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Turns_Lower_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices reversed lower from resistance at a falling trend line set from late November, taking out support at the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion (1649.37). Sellers now aim to challenge the 50% level at 1635.24. A drop beneath that aims for the 61.8% expansion at 1621.55. The 1649.37 level has been recast as resistance, with a reversal back above that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 1666.86.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Turns_Lower_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 93.25, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is in the 91.23-92.01 area, marked by the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibs respectively. This barrier is reinforced by the formerly broken top of a rising channel top set from early November.A drop below 91.23 exposes the 90.00 figure. Alternatively, a reversal above 93.25 aims for the 123.6% expansion at 94.51.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Turns_Lower_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Turns Lower, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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