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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

2012-12-07 07:29:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is attempting to stage a come-back after finding interim support while S&P 500 technical positioning continues to warn of weakness ahead.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 9933, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 9983, the underside of a rising channel set from mid-September, with a break above that targeting the November 21 close at 10046. Alternatively, a drop below 9933 initially exposes a minor falling channel bottom at 9909.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Shows_Signs_of_Life_SP_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance in the 1424.90-1430.90 area, hinting the upward correction witnessed since mid-September may be over and the dominant down trend ready to resume. Initial support lines up at 1406.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 23.6% mark at 1394.30. Alternatively, a push back above 1430.90 targets 1466.10.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Shows_Signs_of_Life_SP_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, taking out support at a rising trend line set from late June. Sellers now aim to challenge the November 5 low at 1672.50. The trend line (now at 1709.01) has been recast as resistance, with a push back above that aiming to challenge 1752.55.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Shows_Signs_of_Life_SP_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion (89.48). Sellers have now cleared near-term support is at 87.42, the 14.6% Fib, exposing the channel bottom at 85.71. A break below that targets the November 7 low at 84.04. The 87.42 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that aiming for 89.48 anew.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Shows_Signs_of_Life_SP_500_May_Turn_Lower_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, S&P 500 May Turn Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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