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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

2012-11-01 21:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY:The US Dollar proved resilient despite its safe-haven characteristics, holding above key technical support even as the S&P 500 recovered sharply higher.

US DOLLARTECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices remain wedged between resistance-turned-support at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the June 1 high (9881) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 9963. A break higher exposes the 50% Fib at 10032. Alternatively, a drop below support targets rising trend line support at 9870.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_its_Ground_Despite_SP_500_Rebound_body_Picture_5.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved higher as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at the 1400 figure, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1394.30. Buyers have now cleared initial resistance in the 1424.90-1425.10 area, exposing the underside of a rising channel set from early June (now at 1447.70). A further push above that targets 1466.10. The 1424.90-1425.10 region has been recast as near-term support.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_its_Ground_Despite_SP_500_Rebound_body_Picture_6.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLDTECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pushed higher as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1693.06, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, taking out resistance at a falling trend line set from the October 5. Buyers now aim to challenge the 1732.33-35.65 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 23.6% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1800/oz figure. Trend line resistance-turned-support is now at 1698.76, with the 1693.06 level providing added reinforcement. A drop below the latter boundary exposes the 50% Fib at 1661.32

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_its_Ground_Despite_SP_500_Rebound_body_Picture_7.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OILTECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are stalling above the 85.00 figure, a barrier reinforced by the 50%Fibonacci expansion at 83.76. Initial resistance lines up at 87.66, the 38.2% Fib, with a break above that targeting a falling trend line set from late September (now at 91.36). Alternatively, a break below 83.76 targets the 80.00 figure and 61.8% level at 79.84.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_its_Ground_Despite_SP_500_Rebound_body_Picture_8.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds its Ground Despite S&P 500 Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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