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Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

2012-11-01 03:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY:The US Dollar and the S&P 500 are treading water near familiar technical barriers as risk sentiment trends look to establish a clear directional bias.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices remain wedged between resistance-turned-support at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the June 1 high (9884) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 9963. A break higher exposes the 50% Fib at 10032. Alternatively, a drop below support targets rising trend line support at 9867.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_SP_500_Stall_as_Risk_Trends_Look_for_Direction_body_Picture_5.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at the 1400 figure, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1394.30, hinting an upswing is ahead. Initial resistance lines up in the 1424.90-1425.10 area, with a break above that exposing the underside of a rising channel set from early June (now at 1443.10). Alternatively, a reversal through 1394.30 targets the 50% Fib at 1369.40.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_SP_500_Stall_as_Risk_Trends_Look_for_Direction_body_Picture_6.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pushed higher as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1693.06, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, taking out resistance at a falling trend line set from the October 5. Buyers now aim to challenge the 1732.33-35.65 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 23.6% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1800/oz figure. Trend line resistance-turned-support is now at 1704.16, with the 1693.06 level providing added reinforcement. A drop below the latter boundary exposes the 50% Fib at 1661.32

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_SP_500_Stall_as_Risk_Trends_Look_for_Direction_body_Picture_7.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are stalling above the 85.00 figure, a barrier reinforced by the 50%Fibonacci expansion at 83.76. Initial resistance lines up at 87.66, the 38.2% Fib, with a break above that targeting a falling trend line set from late September (now at 91.42). Alternatively, a break below 83.76 targets the 80.00 figure and 61.8% level at 79.84.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_SP_500_Stall_as_Risk_Trends_Look_for_Direction_body_Picture_8.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar, S&P 500 Stall as Risk Trends Look for Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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