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Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

2012-10-26 04:16:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY:The US Dollar appears positioned to resume upward momentum after a brief corrective pullback while the S&P 500 continues to drift lower.

US DOLLAR Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above resistance-turned-support at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the June 1 high (9901), hinting a push higher is ahead following a corrective pull-back. Initial resistance remains at 9963, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a push above that exposing the 50% Fib at 10032. Alternatively, a drop below support targets rising trend line support at 9855.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Poised_to_Resume_Rally_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_5.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 – Prices are inching lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1466.10 and clearing trend-defining support at the bottom of a rising channel set from the June low. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1394.30, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 1369.40. Resistance stands in the 1424.90-1425.10 area, marked by the March 27 high and the 23.6% retracement, with a reversal back above that targeting the channel bottom at 1439.50.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Poised_to_Resume_Rally_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_6.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1693.06, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at a falling trend line set from the October 5 swing high (1723.12). A break above that exposes the 1732.33-35.65 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 23.6% Fib. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 50% level at 1661.32.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Poised_to_Resume_Rally_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_7.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to push lower as expected after taking out support at 87.66, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers continue to take aim at the 50% level at 83.76, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% Fib at 79.84. The 87.66 mark has been recast as near-term resistance. A reversal back above that targets the psychologically significant 90.00 figure and a falling trend line set from late September, now at 91.78.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Poised_to_Resume_Rally_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_8.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Poised to Resume Rally as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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