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FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

2012-10-25 02:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar corrected lower as the S&P 500 selloff stalled after clearing trend-defining support but overall positioning still favors a stronger greenback.

US DOLLAR Prices pulled back from 9963, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, to retest resistance-turned-support at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the June 1 high (9904). The move appears corrective, with overall positioning still favoring a broadly bullish bias. A push through 9963 targets the 50% Fib at 10032. Alternatively, a drop below support targets rising trend line support at 9852.

FOREX_ANALYSIS_US_Dollar_Pulls_Back_as_SP_500_Selloff_Stalls_body_usd.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 – Prices pushed lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1466.10. Sellers took out trend-defining support at the bottom of a rising channel set from the June low, a barrier reinforced by the March 27 high (1424.90) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1425.10), hinting prolonged weakness is ahead. The first downside objective from here is at 1394.30, the 38.2% Fib. Near-term, a Spinning Top candle points to indecision and hints a corrective upswing may materialize before renewed selling. The 1424.90-1425.10 area has been recast as resistance, with a reversal back above that targeting the channel bottom at 1437.90.

FOREX_ANALYSIS_US_Dollar_Pulls_Back_as_SP_500_Selloff_Stalls_body_spx.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices continue inch lower as expected following the formation of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick patter. Sellers have taken out support in the 1732.33-35.65 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1693.06. Alternatively, a break above 1735.65 targets 1778.67.

FOREX_ANALYSIS_US_Dollar_Pulls_Back_as_SP_500_Selloff_Stalls_body_xau.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to push lower as expected after taking out support at 87.66, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers continue to take aim at the 50% level at 83.76, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% Fib at 79.84. The 87.66 mark has been recast as near-term resistance. A reversal back above that targets the psychologically significant 90.00 figure and a falling trend line set from late September, now at 91.84.

FOREX_ANALYSIS_US_Dollar_Pulls_Back_as_SP_500_Selloff_Stalls_body_oil.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Selloff Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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