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US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

2012-10-15 03:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is testing formative resistance while the S&P 500 is probing below critical support, hinting major trend reversals may be just around the corner.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing trend-defining support at 1424.90, marked by the March 27 swing high and the bottom of a rising channel set from the early June swing bottom. A break below this barrier is likely to mark a significant bearish reversal, initially exposing the 1400 figure. The first layer of significant resistance is in the 1461.10-66.10 area, defined by the underside of a previously broken rising trend line and the range top prevailing since mid-September.

US_Dollar_SP_500_Challenge_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing resistance at the would-be neckline of an inverse Head and Shoulders bottom (92.50), with a break higher implying a measured upside target at 97.96. Support stands at 87.66, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A drop below that targets the 50% level at 83.76.

US_Dollar_SP_500_Challenge_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke support at the bottom of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern after putting in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern at resistance in the 1790.55-1802.80 area. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downward reversal. Sellers are now testing below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1747.20, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1717.13. The Wedge bottom, now at 1764.25, has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_SP_500_Challenge_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video.

US DOLLAR Prices are testing critical resistance in the 9928-38 area, marked by the late August swing bottom and the top of a falling channel set from the early June high. A break higher threatens to produce a significant upward trend reversal, initially exposing 9985. Rising trend line support is at 9890, with a break below that targeting 9823.

US_Dollar_SP_500_Challenge_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar, S&P 500 Challenge Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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