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Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

2012-09-25 22:28:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 awoke from a complacent slumber to take out the first layer of support. Will the US Dollar follow higher as haven demand returns?

S&P 500 – Prices finally broke out of complacency to take out support at 1453.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, having stalled at the top of a rising channel set from early June. Sellers now aim to challenge 1439.80, a Fibonacci confluence point marked by the 50% expansion and 23.6% retracement. A further push below this barrier targets the 1418.10-22.40 area. The 1453.20 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Will_the_US_Dollar_Break_its_Range_as_SP_500_Sinks_Past_Support_body_Picture_5.png, Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices broke below support at 91.56, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the next downside objective at 88.83 (the 50% Fib). The 91.56 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the underside of a rising channel set from early July, now at 95.34.

Will_the_US_Dollar_Break_its_Range_as_SP_500_Sinks_Past_Support_body_Picture_6.png, Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices continue to stall after taking out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1756.34 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1725.87 and 1687.84, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements respectively.

Will_the_US_Dollar_Break_its_Range_as_SP_500_Sinks_Past_Support_body_Picture_7.png, Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are drifting sideways in a well-defined range. Support is at 9783, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break beneath that exposing the 38.2% expansion at 9738. Resistance is marked by the 38.2%retracement at 9857, with a push above that targeting the 50% barrier at 9893.

Will_the_US_Dollar_Break_its_Range_as_SP_500_Sinks_Past_Support_body_Picture_8.png, Will the US Dollar Break its Range as S&P 500 Sinks Past Support?

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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