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Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

2012-09-21 02:52:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is probing below near-term support, hinting the upward correction traced out this week may be running out of steam. The S&P 500 continues to tread water.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting the previously broken top of a rising channel set from early June (1458.30) as support. A break to the downside targets the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1439.60. Near-term resistance lines up at 1481.00, the 61.8% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1500 figure and the 76.4% level at 1532.20.

Dollar_Probes_Near-Term_Support_as_SP_500_Digests_Recent_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices found interim support at 91.56, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out the bottom of a rising channel carved out since early July yesterday. Renewed selling below this boundary targets the 50% level at 88.83. The channel bottom – now at 94.72 – has been recast as resistance. A push back above that aims to challenge a falling trend line set from late February (now at 99.39).

Dollar_Probes_Near-Term_Support_as_SP_500_Digests_Recent_Gains_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices continue to stall after taking out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1757.39 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1742.44 and 1719.72, the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements respectively.

Dollar_Probes_Near-Term_Support_as_SP_500_Digests_Recent_Gains_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing through near-term channel support set from the September 14 low, hinting downside pressure may be preparing to re-emerge. A break lower sees initial support at 9783, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 9857, the 38.2% Fib retracement level, with a break above that exposing the channel top (now at 9867).

Dollar_Probes_Near-Term_Support_as_SP_500_Digests_Recent_Gains_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Probes Near-Term Support as S&P 500 Digests Recent Gains

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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