THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is probing below near-term support, hinting the upward correction traced out this week may be running out of steam. The S&P 500 continues to tread water.
S&P 500 – Prices are retesting the previously broken top of a rising channel set from early June (1458.30) as support. A break to the downside targets the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1439.60. Near-term resistance lines up at 1481.00, the 61.8% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1500 figure and the 76.4% level at 1532.20.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices found interim support at 91.56, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out the bottom of a rising channel carved out since early July yesterday. Renewed selling below this boundary targets the 50% level at 88.83. The channel bottom – now at 94.72 – has been recast as resistance. A push back above that aims to challenge a falling trend line set from late February (now at 99.39).
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices continue to stall after taking out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1757.39 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1742.44 and 1719.72, the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements respectively.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing through near-term channel support set from the September 14 low, hinting downside pressure may be preparing to re-emerge. A break lower sees initial support at 9783, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 9857, the 38.2% Fib retracement level, with a break above that exposing the channel top (now at 9867).
4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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