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S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar and S&P 500 appear set to pounce as prices coil up near defining technical barriers, with the ECB rate decision lining up as a possible near-term catalyst.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to drift below resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20 and a channel top at 1445.40.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Coiled_at_Key_Chart_Barriers_ECB_on_Tap_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing support at a rising trend line set from the June 28 low (95.52), a barrier reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 93.90. Initial resistance is at 97.82, the 61.8% retracement, with a break higher exposing the 100.00 figure and 100.65. Alternatively, a push below 93.90 exposes the 38.2% Fib at 89.87.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Coiled_at_Key_Chart_Barriers_ECB_on_Tap_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are stalling below the 1700/oz figure after taking out critical resistance at 1674.65, the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high. A push above 1700 will likely challenge the 50% Fib at 1721.65. The 1674.65 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that clearing the way for a re-test of the trend line (now at 1664.53) and the August 31 low at 1645.76.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Coiled_at_Key_Chart_Barriers_ECB_on_Tap_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing the familiar resistance cluster marked by the top of a falling channel established from the July 12 high (10016), the underside of a rising trend set from late July 2011 (10046), and the midline of a larger channel carved out since late May (10044). Initial channel support is at 9934, with a break below that exposing 9855. Alternatively, a push above 10046 targets the channel top at 10138.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Coiled_at_Key_Chart_Barriers_ECB_on_Tap_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Coiled at Key Chart Barriers, ECB on Tap

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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