THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&P 500 continue to drift sideways near familiar technical levels while crude oil is cautiously probing through support.
S&P 500 – Prices continue to drift below resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20 and a channel top at 1443.80.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from the June 28 low (95.72). Initial resistance is at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher exposing the 100.00 figure and 100.65. Alternatively, a reversal through channel support initially targeting the 50% Fib at 93.90.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices are stalling near the 1700/oz figure after taking out critical resistance at 1674.65, the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high. A push above 1700 will likely challenge the 50% Fib at 1721.65. The 1674.65 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that clearing the way for a re-test of the trend line (now at 1665.36) and the August 31 low at 1645.76.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing the now-familiar resistance cluster marked by the top of a falling channel established from the July 12 high (10018), the underside of a rising trend set from late July 2011 (10041), and the midline of a larger channel carved out since late May (10046). Initial channel support is at 9937, with a break below that exposing 9860. Alternatively, a push above 10046 targets the channel top at 10139.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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