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US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

2012-09-04 03:04:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&P 500 continue to drift sideways near familiar technical boundaries as directional conviction remains broadly lacking across the markets.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to drift below resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20 and a channel top at 1442.70.

US_Dollar_and_SP_500_Continue_to_Wait_for_Directional_Conviction_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are bouncing from support at a rising channel set from the June 28 low (95.33). Initial resistance is at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher exposing the 100.00 figure and 100.65. Alternatively, a reversal through channel support initially targeting the 50% Fib at 93.90.

US_Dollar_and_SP_500_Continue_to_Wait_for_Directional_Conviction_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke through critical resistance at 1674.65, the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high. The bulls now aim to challenge the 1700/oz figure, followed by the 50% Fib at 1721.65. The 1674.65 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that exposing the August 31 low at 1645.76.

US_Dollar_and_SP_500_Continue_to_Wait_for_Directional_Conviction_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices continue to stall below a resistance cluster marked by the top of a falling channel established from the July 12 high (10026), the underside of a rising trend set from late July 2011 (10039), and the midline of a larger channel carved out since late May (10047). Initial channel support is at 9939, with a break below that exposing 9866. Alternatively, a break above 10048 exposes the channel top at 10142.

US_Dollar_and_SP_500_Continue_to_Wait_for_Directional_Conviction_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar and S&P 500 Continue to Wait for Directional Conviction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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