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S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

2012-08-30 02:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 and the US Dollar are stalling at familiar technical barriers, with markets in a holding pattern before Friday’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to edge narrowly lower after putting in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes a channel top at 1438.10, followed by the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Stall_at_Familiar_Levels_Before_Jackson_Hole_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices edged lower through support at 95.41, the February 2 low, after completing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (97.82). Sellers now aim to target the 50% Fib at 93.90, with a break below that targeting 92.51. The 95.41 level has been recast as resistance, with a break back above that exposing 97.82 anew.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Stall_at_Familiar_Levels_Before_Jackson_Hole_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices edged lower putting in a Doji candlestick below trend-defining resistance at a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high, taking out initial support is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement (1658.55). Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1627.46. The 1658.55 level has been recast as resistance, with a break above that opening the door for test of trend line resistance now at 1668.89.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Stall_at_Familiar_Levels_Before_Jackson_Hole_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are stalling a confluence of resistance marked by the top of a falling channel established from the July 12 high (10028), the underside of a rising trend set from late July 2011 (10032), and the midline of a larger channel carved out since late May (10052). A break above the latter level exposes the channel top at 10147. Initial channel support is at 9945, with a break below that exposing 9880.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Stall_at_Familiar_Levels_Before_Jackson_Hole_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Stall at Familiar Levels Before Jackson Hole

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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