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US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar was rejected downward as an attempt to run higher met with initial resistance while the S&P 500 continues to stall below the March and May swing tops.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops after an initial push lower, with a Shooting Star candlestick hinting downside momentum may be ready to resume. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes a channel top at 1436.50, followed by the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20.

US_Dollar_Rejected_on_First_Resistance_Test_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are consolidating between resistance at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and support at 95.41, the February 2 low. A break downward initially targets the 50% Fib at 93.90. Alternatively, a push higher through resistance exposes a falling trend line set from the late-February swing top, now at 99.09.

US_Dollar_Rejected_on_First_Resistance_Test_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are stalling below trend-defining resistance at a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high. Initial support is at 1658.55, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1627.46. Trend line resistance is now at 1671.16. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% retracement at 1689.63 and the 1700/oz figure.

US_Dollar_Rejected_on_First_Resistance_Test_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices were rejected downward after an initial test of resistanceat the underside of a major rising trend set from the late-July 2011 bottom. The first layer of support lines up at 9947, marked by the bottom of a falling channel set from late May, with a break below that exposing the bottom of a steeper channel established from the July 12 high (9883). Resistance is now in the 10029-55 area at the confluence of the aforementioned trend line, the smaller channel’s top and the larger one’s midline.

US_Dollar_Rejected_on_First_Resistance_Test_SP_500_Treading_Water_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Rejected on First Resistance Test, S&P 500 Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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