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US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has recovered to meet the first layer of resistance while the S&P 500 appears to be carving out a top below the May and March swing highs.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops after an initial push lower, with a Shooting Star candlestick hinting downside momentum may be ready to resume. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a break above resistance initially exposes a channel top at 1435.40, followed by the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20.

US_Dollar_Bounce_Meets_First_Hurdle_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are consolidating between resistance at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and support at 95.41, the February 2 low. A break downward initially targets the 50% Fib at 93.90. Alternatively, a push higher through resistance exposes a falling trend line set from the late-February swing top, now at 99.21.

US_Dollar_Bounce_Meets_First_Hurdle_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices edged lower as expected after putting in a Doji candlestick below trend-defining resistance at a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high. Initial support remains at 1658.55, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1627.46. Trend line resistance is now at 1670.81, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% retracement at 1689.63 and the 1700/oz figure.

US_Dollar_Bounce_Meets_First_Hurdle_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are rising as expected after putting in a Hammer candlestick above support marked by the bottom of a falling channel set from late May. Initial resistance lines up at the underside of a major rising trend set from the late-July 2011 bottom (10027). A push above that targets the top of a steeper channel set from the July 12 high (10039), followed by the larger channel’s midline (10057).

US_Dollar_Bounce_Meets_First_Hurdle_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Bounce Meets First Hurdle, S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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