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US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to recover after last week’s sharp selloff despite a rebound in the S&P 500 that might have been expected to hurt the haven currency.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops after turning lower from that barrier last week following the formation of a Spinning Top candlestick. A break higher initially exposes channel top resistance now at 1433.30, followed by the May 20 2008 high at 1440.20. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a breach below that targeting a minor downside hurdle at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90.

US_Dollar_Recovery_Continues_as_SP_500_Flirts_with_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are consolidating between resistance at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and support at 95.41, the February 2 low. A break downward initially targets the 50% Fib at 93.90. Alternatively, a push higher through resistance exposes a falling trend line set from the late-February swing top, now at 99.22, as well as the psychologically significant $100/barrel figure.

US_Dollar_Recovery_Continues_as_SP_500_Flirts_with_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Doji candlestick below trend-defining resistance at a falling trend line set from the August 23 2011 swing high, hinting a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 1658.55, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1627.46. Alternatively, a break above the trend line (now at 1671.94) on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% retracement at 1689.63 and the 1700/oz figure.

US_Dollar_Recovery_Continues_as_SP_500_Flirts_with_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are rising as expected after putting in a Hammer candlestick above support marked by the bottom of a falling channel set from late May. Initial resistance lines up at 10024 at the underside of a major rising trend set from the late-July 2011 bottom. A break above that targets the top of a steeper channel at 10045. Alternatively, a break below support exposes 9895.

US_Dollar_Recovery_Continues_as_SP_500_Flirts_with_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Recovery Continues as S&P 500 Flirts with Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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