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S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar may rebound on haven demand after test critical trend-defining support as S&P 500 technical positioning hints at forthcoming weakness.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick at resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops, pointing to ebbing bullish conviction and warning a reversal lower may be ahead. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a break below that exposing a minor downside barrier at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90. Alternatively, a turn higher beyond resistance initially targets 1440.20, the May 20 2008 high.

SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_Hinting_Dollar_May_Hold_Key_Support_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing resistance at 97.82, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break higher exposing a falling trend line set from the late-February swing top now at 99.30. This barrier is reinforced by the psychologically significant $100/barrel figure. Near-term support is at 95.41, the February 2 low, with a drop back below that targeting the 50% Fib at 93.90.

SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_Hinting_Dollar_May_Hold_Key_Support_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices breached key resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area, exposing a major falling trend set from the August 23 2011 peak, now at 1664.47, as the next upside objective. A break above this barrier would mark a significant bullish trend development and initially open the door for a challenge of 1680.00. The 1620.45-35.70 area has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_Hinting_Dollar_May_Hold_Key_Support_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices recoiled from resistance marked by the confluence of a falling trend line set from the July 12 high and the midline of a falling channel carved out over the past three months, dropping back to long-term rising trend line support set from early August 2011. A break below this boundary marks a significant reversal and initially exposes channel bottom support at 9969. Resistance is now in the 10063-69 area, with a break above that targeting the 10139-69 region.

SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_Hinting_Dollar_May_Hold_Key_Support_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal, Hinting Dollar May Hold Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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