THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 has stalled at resistance marked by major swing highs from March and May while the US Dollar is probing cautiously higher.
S&P 500 – Prices are resting resistance in the 1415.10-24.90 area marked by the March and May swing tops. A push higher beyond that targets 1440.20, the May 20 2008 high. Initial support remains at 1392.10, with a break below that exposing a minor downside barrier at 1376.10 and a more significant one at 1363.90.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices broke resistance at 95.41, the February 2 low, opening the door for a challenge of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 97.82. A break above that exposes the psychologically significant $100/barrel figure. The 95.41 level has been recast as support, with a drop back below that targeting the 50% Fib at 93.90.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices continue to drift below resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area. Near-term support remains at a rising trend line support set from late June, now at 1599.67. A break below this boundary exposes a longer-term trend line established from the May 16 bottom, currently at 1578.22. Alternatively, a push above resistance initially targets the major trend set from the April 23 2011 peak, now at 1666.52.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing resistance at 10073, the confluence of a falling trend line set from the July 12 high and the midline of a falling channel carved out over the past three months. A break higher exposes the 10139-69 area. Support is at 10041, with a break below targeting long-term rising trend line support at 10010.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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