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Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

2012-08-13 03:03:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to hold above trend-defining support as the S&P 500 nears key resistance, setting the stage for the greenback to mount a recovery.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below the critical 1415.10-24.90 congestion region marked by the late March and early May swing tops, warning of ebbing bullish conviction and hinting a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 1392.10, with a break below that exposing minor support at 1376.10 and a larger level at 1363.90.

Dollar_Holds_Trend_Support_as_SP_500_Broaches_Key_Upside_Barriers_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to test resistance in the 93.21-90 area marked by the July 19 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term support remains at the psychologically significant 90.00 figure, a barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 89.87. A break below the latter level exposes a rising trend line set from early July, now at 88.38. Alternatively, a push above resistance initially targets the 61.8% Fib at 97.82.

Dollar_Holds_Trend_Support_as_SP_500_Broaches_Key_Upside_Barriers_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices continue to hover near resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area. A turn lower from here aims to test support at a rising trend line support set from late June, now at 1593.35. A break below this boundary exposes a longer-term trend line established from the May 16 bottom currently at 1573.96. A push above resistance initially targets 1677.79, the May 1 swing high.

Dollar_Holds_Trend_Support_as_SP_500_Broaches_Key_Upside_Barriers_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices continue to stall at key support marked by a rising trend line established from late July 2011 (now squarely at the 10,000 figure) and the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (9995). A push lower from here exposes the bottom of a falling channel set from early June (9969) and 100% expansion at 9925. Near-term resistance is at 10038, the 61.8% Fib, with a break above that targeting the channelmidline (now at 10071).

Dollar_Holds_Trend_Support_as_SP_500_Broaches_Key_Upside_Barriers_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Holds Trend Support as S&P 500 Broaches Key Upside Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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