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S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

2012-08-01 06:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 and the US Dollar are hovering at trend-defining technical barriers as markets wait for the FOMC and ECB rate decisions to cross the wires.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1392.10, a horizontal barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late March. Negative RSI divergence argues for a downside scenario. Initial support lines up at 1380.60, with a break below that exposing 1358.40. Alternatively, a push through resistance neutralizes the overall bearish structure and exposes the 1400 figure.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Hover_at_Key_Technical_Barriers_as_Event_Risk_Looms_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing support in the 87.65-88.32 area, marked by the July 3 closing high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% level at 85.37. Near-term resistance stands at the 90.00 figure, with a push above that targeting the July 19 high at 93.21.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Hover_at_Key_Technical_Barriers_as_Event_Risk_Looms_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 area, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at a falling trend line resistance set from late March, now at 1595.57. A break below that targets 1568.58.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Hover_at_Key_Technical_Barriers_as_Event_Risk_Looms_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are hovering above the 10000 figure – a barrier reinforced by a major rising trend line set from late July – after taking out range support at 10041. A daily close below the latter boundary would make the case for a significant bearish trend change. The 10041 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_US_Dollar_Hover_at_Key_Technical_Barriers_as_Event_Risk_Looms_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Hover at Key Technical Barriers as Event Risk Looms

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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